Republicans Not Enthusiastic!?
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 12:02 am
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.
Another challenge facing the G.O.P. is a stark drop-off in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush. While the G.O.P. won out in the poll by seven points (42-35) as the party perceived as best equipped to protect moral values, a matter especially important to this group, the party's standing among evangelicals may have been hurt by recent Congressional scandals, which have tarnished the G.O.P. especially. Forty-one percent of registered voters said Congressional scandals were extremely or very important as voting issues this campaign.
A third factor running against the G.O.P. is an improvement in men's attitudes towards the Democrats. Males provided much of the Bush victory margin in 2004: the President took 55% of the male vote while John Kerry won 44%, according to exit polls. For the 2006 midterms, the TIME poll suggests men are almost evenly split, with 43% supporting Republican candidates and 47% Democrats. Women in the TIME poll support Democratic candidates by a lopsided 59% to 33% for Republicans. In 2004, Kerry had just a three-point edge among females.
Read the rest here.
Another challenge facing the G.O.P. is a stark drop-off in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush. While the G.O.P. won out in the poll by seven points (42-35) as the party perceived as best equipped to protect moral values, a matter especially important to this group, the party's standing among evangelicals may have been hurt by recent Congressional scandals, which have tarnished the G.O.P. especially. Forty-one percent of registered voters said Congressional scandals were extremely or very important as voting issues this campaign.
A third factor running against the G.O.P. is an improvement in men's attitudes towards the Democrats. Males provided much of the Bush victory margin in 2004: the President took 55% of the male vote while John Kerry won 44%, according to exit polls. For the 2006 midterms, the TIME poll suggests men are almost evenly split, with 43% supporting Republican candidates and 47% Democrats. Women in the TIME poll support Democratic candidates by a lopsided 59% to 33% for Republicans. In 2004, Kerry had just a three-point edge among females.
Read the rest here.