Beebe v Hutchinson

[Doug]

Poll shows Beebe with 18-point lead over Hutchinson in governor's race
Tuesday, Oct 3, 2006

By Rob Moritz
Arkansas News Bureau
LITTLE ROCK - Democrat Mike Beebe maintained a double-digit lead over Republican Asa Hutchinson in the governor's race, according to results of a second independent poll commissioned by Arkansas News Bureau-Stephens Media released Monday.

The poll, conducted by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock, showed Beebe was the favorite of 53 percent of respondents and Hutchinson was favored by 35 percent. Independent candidate Rod Bryan garnered 2 percent and Green Party of Arkansas candidate Jim Lendall had 1 percent.

See here for the rest of the story.

===
DOUG
A Rasmussen poll ending Oct 12 had Beebe at 50% and Hutchinson at 40%.

See here.

[Dardedar]

Excellent.

[Savonarola]

According to someone on NWAP, Zogby has Hutchinson only 2.7% behind Beebe. They're also crying bloody murder that these other polls are skewed by polling Democrats overproportionately. Not that I put much stock in anything passing the fantasy filters on NWAP, but where is this discrepancy coming from?

[Doug]

According to someone on NWAP, Zogby has Hutchinson only 2.7% behind Beebe. They're also crying bloody murder that these other polls are skewed by polling Democrats overproportionately. Not that I put much stock in anything passing the fantasy filters on NWAP, but where is this discrepancy coming from?

DOUG
Zogby is often the one that is skewed. Their questions on their polls seem to be less nuanced than the questions of other polls. They often tend to favor the conservative.

A Democrat-Gazette article from April 1st had this:

Also Friday, Beebe overtook Hutchinson for the first time in a poll of contests in “battleground states” done by Zogby International for The Wall Street Journal. Beebe has led Hutchinson in polls by other organizations, but Hutchinson had led Beebe in the last four Zogby polls going back to August. The latest Zogby poll shows Beebe up by six points.

=======

If other respected polling sources consistently disagree with Zogby (as is often the case), I give less credence to Zogby.

I also found one blog that said that the Zogby poll was an "interactive" online poll, not a scientific one.

Here.

=
Clint Reed, executive director of the Republican Party of Arkansas, downplayed the Opinion Research poll.

"These numbers are just a continuation of the wild variances in recent polling data," Reed said. "Last week, John Zogby had the governor's race within the margin of error. So, I still do not give credence to Mr. Oakleaf's poll numbers."

Opinion Research interviewed 125 people in each of the state's four congressional districts. According to the results, Beebe leads in all but the 3rd District, the traditional Republican stronghold in Northwest Arkansas where Hutchinson won three congressional elections before joining the Bush administration. There, Hutchinson led 49 percent to 35 percent.

Beebe led 60 percent to 35 percent in Northeast Arkansas' 1st District, 56 percent to 31 percent in Central Arkansas' 2nd District and 57 percent to 33 percent in South Arkansas' 4th District.

According to the poll, 63 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Beebe to 46 percent for Hutchinson. Seventeen percent had an unfavorable view of the Democratic candidate while 39 percent viewed the GOP nominee unfavorably.

In the August poll, Beebe got a 61 percent favorable rating and 14 percent unfavorable. Hutchinson got 44 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable.
===
From here.

[Dardedar]

According to someone on NWAP,

DAR
Those boys and girls are such cowards they won't even put a moniker, even a phony one, on their junk any more? Amazing.

Zogby has Hutchinson only 2.7% behind Beebe. They're also crying bloody murder that these other polls are skewed by polling Democrats overproportionately. Not that I put much stock in anything passing the fantasy filters on NWAP, but where is this discrepancy coming from?

DAR
I followed the WSJ link from nwapolitics. It gives Zogby the main spot but notes below:

Rasmussen (9/16) Beebe 49%, Hutchinson 38%

Opinion Research (8/15-19) Beebe 52%, Hutchinson 31%

[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

Zogby IS an interactive online poll - I'm one of their "interviewees" (look up their website and sign up - help move the results leftward) - and yes, they do frame some of their questions to slant towards conservatives. Not too badly, but some questions that should be answered N/A or none of the above, don't give that option and force the answer toward the conservative side. It's much more balanced than what I saw from a group called thepollingpoint (or something like that) - their questions about illegal immigrants were "if and only if enforcement only policies were passed," would you vote a) for or b) against amnesty. If that isn't a biased phrasing, I've never seen one. If Beebe is ahead in the Zogby poll, he's probably got it - barring "spoiled votes" and "quirky" voting machines (the exception being why the Rs don't want you to pay attention to polls - they're evidence of stolen elections in every nation in the world but ours).

[Betsy]

this is really great news! i've always figured Asa had it in the bag, so it's refreshing to hear that maybe we have a shot at it. did anyone watch the Beebe/Hutchinson "debate" on television last night? If so, what was your impression?

[JD Allen]

this is really great news! i've always figured Asa had it in the bag, so it's refreshing to hear that maybe we have a shot at it. did anyone watch the Beebe/Hutchinson "debate" on television last night? If so, what was your impression?

I saw the previous one and Beebe came off much better than Hutchinson, imo.

[RickBaber]

I'm sorry, Betsy. I'm a photographer. I don't do impressions.

[Doug]

did anyone watch the Beebe/Hutchinson "debate" on television last night? If so, what was your impression?

DOUG
I saw the first one and the last half of the third one. I thought Beebe did a much better job than Asa. Asa came off as being in attack mode far more than Beebe, and Beebe seemed in any case to be often correcting Asa on various points.

I thought Beebe came out ahead each time.

[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

If Beebe came off as "correcting" and not "contradicting" Asa, we may have us a R-Lite, I mean Dem, govenor '07-'11.

[Dardedar]

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – The 2006 Arkansas Poll reflects election-year concerns of Arkansans and offers researchers and policymakers a snapshot of Arkansan’s attitudes toward social issues, global warming, 911 emergency services and disaster preparedness, and the state’s water resources

“It’s interesting to note that the president’s approval ratings are lower in Arkansas than in nearly any other state that cast its electoral votes for Bush in 2004,” Parry said. “That suggests that Arkansas may still be considered a swing state for 2008, despite the wide margin in ’04 for Bush.”


Poll results showed Democrat Mike Beebe retaining a substantial lead over Republican Asa Hutchinson in the race for Arkansas governor."

Beebe: 51 percent
Hutchinson: 38 percent
Other: 1 percent
Don't know/Refused to answer: 9 percent

The Arkansas Poll was conducted in October by the Survey Research Center at the University of Arkansas and yielded 761 completed surveys from a random sample of adult Arkansans. Eight surveys or 1 percent of the total were conducted in Spanish

The 2006 Arkansas Poll is sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society in the J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences. The poll was designed and analyzed by political scientists Janine Parry and Bill Schreckhise, in collaboration with researchers in psychology, information systems and economics.

http://plsc.uark.edu/arkpoll/

[LaWood]

Yet another poll, this one sponsored by a RW station in Little Rock KTHV:

Beebe, Democrats Lead In New Polls

Democrats sweep Arkansas statewide contests for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general.

According to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Today's THV, in all contests, the Democrats’ lead is increasing.

For governor, Democrat Mike Beebe leads Republican Asa Hutchinson, 58 percent to 38 percent. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, Beebe's lead has grown from 15 points to 20 points.

For lieutenant governor, Democrat Bill Halter leads Republican Jim Holt, 54 percent to 39 percent. Four weeks ago, Halter led by 6 points. Now, he leads by 15.

For secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Charlie Daniels leads Republican Jim Lagrone, 62 percent to 31 percent. Last month, Daniels led by 25, he now leads by 31 points.

For attorney general, Democrat Dustin McDaniel leads Republican Gunner DeLay 57 percent to 35 percent. In an identical poll in September, McDaniel led by 17 points. His lead has now increased to 22 points.

Survey Info: 1,000 Arkansas adults were interviewed Oct. 22-24. Of them, 836 were registered to vote. Of them, 572 were judged to be "likely" voters and were included in the polling data. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4.1 percent.
Survey Info: 1,000 Arkansas adults were interviewed Oct. 22-24. Of them, 836 were registered to vote. Of them, 572 were judged to be "likely" voters and were included in the polling data. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4.1 percent.
http://www.kthv.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=36001

BTW the Arkansas Poll by Janie Perry, link previously posted. had the previous races correct for Huckabee and Lincoln.

How many of you recall when NWA Polly previously condemned the Zogby poll when it didn't reflect what they fantasized. It is afterall, a blind poll, they don't know who is on the other end of phone. Holt likes to use them. Holt will get his customary 42-44%, from surprising pockets around the state. There's always 40% of Arkies willing to support a nutcake and getting a few more is light on the pocket book.
_

[Dardedar]

According to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Today's THV, in all contests, the Democrats’ lead is increasing.

For governor, Democrat Mike Beebe leads Republican Asa Hutchinson, 58 percent to 38 percent. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, Beebe's lead has grown from 15 points to 20 points.

For lieutenant governor, Democrat Bill Halter leads Republican Jim Holt, 54 percent to 39 percent. Four weeks ago, Halter led by 6 points. Now, he leads by 15.

For secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Charlie Daniels leads Republican Jim Lagrone, 62 percent to 31 percent. Last month, Daniels led by 25, he now leads by 31 points.

For attorney general, Democrat Dustin McDaniel leads Republican Gunner DeLay 57 percent to 35 percent. In an identical poll in September, McDaniel led by 17 points. His lead has now increased to 22 points.

DAR
Your post makes me... smile.



All of creation is happy to hear this news:


.
.

[Dardedar]

From Reuters:

"But if he is worried, Bush going to lengths not to show it. He remains the "eternal optimist" against a tide of opinion polls and declaring Democrats so cocky that they are prematurely "measuring the drapes."

He insisted, "November 7th is going to be a good day for the Republicans."

link

[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

The more W is convinced the Rs are going to have a good day 11/7, the more I'm looking for election fraud.

[Dardedar]

Yet another poll showing the same. Ass! and Jesus Jim Holt say it is neck and neck:

***
Our third and final Constituent Dynamics poll indicates solid leads for Democrats Mike Beebe and Dustin McDaniel, but the biggest movement shows Democrat Bill Halter opening up a lead on Republican Jim Holt in the race for Lt. Governor.

In our two previous polls, Halter led Holt by four points. Today, Halter has extended that lead to 50%-39% with 11% undecided.

Our final Constituent Dynamics poll
surveyed 999 likely Arkansas voters. The poll was conducted on October 16-18 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Democrat Mike Beebe leads Republican Asa Hutchinson 52%-39% in the race for Governor. Green Party candidate Jim Lendall and Independent Rod Bryan are polling 2% each. 5% remain undecided. These numbers are largely unchanged from our last Constituent Dynamics poll despite weeks of paid media and the last of three debates between the two major party candidates for Governor.

In the Attorney General's race, Democrat Dustin McDaniel continues his advantage over Republican Gunner DeLay 56% to 35% with 9% undecided.

Our final Constituent Dynamics poll surveyed 999 likely Arkansas voters. The poll was conducted on October 16-18 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%

Note: We also asked the questions in random order so as to mix up which names were asked first, either Republican or Democrat. And, we included the titles of each candidate, if they had one - such as State Senator Jim Holt or Attorney General Mike Beebe - because that is how they will appear on the ballot to the voter.

***
LINK

[Dardedar]

Political rant. A young'un sounds off on Arkie politiks

Dogtownius

Adventures in the politics and society of my beloved hometown, North Little Rock.

DOGTOWN WARD 1: Ross YES, Brown HELL NO

It's time to start some traditions here at the Casa de Dawg with a quick Brummettesque rundown of those whom I dig, and those that can just go suck it.

DIG IT: MIKE BEEBE. Stop complaining about Asa!s kid commercial, Mr. Governor Elect. Underage kids are definitely a recurring thing in the GOP this election season. Best not to engage.

SUCK IT: ASA. When that commercial came out, the Dems nervously said you had finally run out of ideas. But seriously, no shit, you really have run out of ideas. Even your little bitches at ArkFam are beginning to despair and have lapsed into calling each other homos again. And I've always wanted to know, was it noisy in that apartment in DC back in 1999 when your brother Tim was shtupping his mistress Randi? Did you have to cover for him when his old lady or his pastor called? Did you ever say to him "Gee, Tim, I know everybody needs a skanky piece of ass now and then, but I really don't think you are supporting our family-friendly GOP platform comforting your staff with your rod."

SUCK IT: GUNNER DELAY. The major problem with Arkansas, according to Gunner, is there are just too many homos homoing it up, homoing around, homoing in on adoption, homoing up the schools, homoing non-homos, and homoing up churches. Go homo yourself, Gunner.

DIG IT: DUSTIN MCDANIEL. Good strategy-- let Gunner masturbate himself to death with guns and gays. Eww.

DIG IT: BILL HALTER. You can outgrow the carpetbagger label. You definitely have the smarts. But bag that stupid coach commercial. And just between us guys . . . can you give me an address on that porn site Holt keeps talking about?

SUCK IT: JIM HOLT. On the other hand, if you're crazier than a shithouse rat, well, that's hard to outgrow. Even the repubs are embarassed, especially now that he has a better shot than Asa at getting elected. I've said it before: if/when the GOP ticket fails, it will be blamed on Jim Holt and Charlie Daniels.

DIG IT: CHARLIE DANIELS. Hey. Charlie. Wake up. You won four more years. Yeah. No, I have no idea how you wound up on my couch. Just sleep it off, man.

DIG IT: VIC SNYDER. Even the DemGaz recommended this dependable liberal over his leg-humping opponent. He's the smartest guy in our congressional delegation, and he demonstrated remarkable restraint in this week's thinly-veiled attack on hs wife. Maybe when Mark Pryor makes it official and goes Republican we can make Vic our new junior senator.

SUCK IT HARD: ANDY MAYBERRY. The aforementioned humper of legs, and now the posterboy for electoral autoerotic asphyxiation. Hit all the usual queer-marriage-Jesus-dead babies-gun notes in the debate, then goes after Vic's dirty liberal Methodist minister wife for preaching tolerance. Fine, let's have the wives debate. I'd love to see liberal Betsy slap Julie's bony ass (literally and figuratively) back to East End. It would be . . . Christ-like.

SUCK IT: CHRIS MORRIS. Getting fired by the Governor in the last eight weeks of his term is no kind of recommendation for statewide office. You are so boned, dude.

DIG IT: MIKE HUCKABEE. Aww, hell. I'm feeling charitable. He's gone. He's not going to be President, though he doesn't know that yet. He just helped throw the Treasurer's race to Shoffner, even though she already had it in the bag. I can't help suspecting that he's secretly laughing at Asa and Holt and their Northwest Arkansas wahabism as it flames out. After a decade fighting the good fight against Huck and his vanilla conservatism, I guess us liberals just have to laugh with him, not at him.

link
.
.

[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

I agreed with him about Snyder - also Pryor.

[Dardedar]

The WSJ cites a Zogby poll that puts Ass! 3% ahead of Beebe:

LINK