Sylvia Browne Looks Foolish On Radio Show

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Doug
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Post by Doug »

Barbara Fitzpatrick wrote:You're still not listening to what I'm saying. I don't think the stars have a darned thing to do with the character traits that are associated with them - I think something here on earth causes it and that something is not being investigated precisely because of all the arguments against the stars being causal, and the subsequent denial that there are any character traits that for some reason that we do not know and aren't investigating show up in people born certain times of the year (or of the month or day, for that matter).
DOUG
That HAS been investigated. Regardless of the alleged cause, there is no phenomenon such as different personalities or destinies or dangers or luck based on the time in which a person is born. So given that there is no phenomenon to explain, we needn't posit that an Earthly cause or a starry cause is responsible for it.

If you know of any studies that have shown that there is a phenomenon, clue us in.
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Post by Dardedar »

Barbara Fitzpatrick wrote: I don't think the stars have a darned thing to do with the character traits that are associated with them - I think something here on earth causes it...
DAR
Something here on earth causes character traits to be associated with stars (or time of birth)? Why would you or anyone think that?

BARB
and that something is not being investigated precisely because of all the arguments against the stars being causal,
DAR
It has been investigated and investigated and investigated and investigated. Have you read, or read about, any of these investigations? See below.
and the subsequent denial that there are any character traits
DAR
Why on earth, would (or should) anyone think there are character traits associated with the stars or time of birth? What do you have?

D.

ps You've read a lot of my posts. Care to take a guess about my sign? How about Doug's?

--------------------------
Astrologers fail to predict proof they are wrong
(Filed: 17/08/2003)

Science Correspondent Robert Matthews.

Good news for rational, level-headed Virgoans everywhere: just as you might have predicted, scientists have found astrology to be rubbish.

Its central claim - that our human characteristics are moulded by the influence of the Sun, Moon and planets at the time of our birth - appears to have been debunked once and for all and beyond doubt by the most thorough scientific study ever made into it.

For several decades, researchers tracked more than 2,000 people - most of them born within minutes of each other. According to astrology, the subject should have had very similar traits.

Starry eyed: Grant

The babies were originally recruited as part of a medical study begun in London in 1958 into how the circumstances of birth can affect future health. More than 2,000 babies born in early March that year were registered and their development monitored at regular intervals.

Researchers looked at more than 100 different characteristics, including occupation, anxiety levels, marital status, aggressiveness, sociability, IQ levels and ability in art, sport, mathematics and reading - all of which astrologers claim can be gauged from birth charts.

The scientists failed to find any evidence of similarities between the "time twins", however. They reported in the current issue of the Journal of Consciousness Studies: "The test conditions could hardly have been more conducive to success . . . but the results are uniformly negative."

Analysis of the research was carried out by Geoffrey Dean, a scientist and former astrologer based in Perth, Australia, and Ivan Kelly, a psychologist at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada.

Dr Dean said the results undermined the claims of astrologers, who typically work with birth data far less precise than that used in the study. "They sometimes argue that times of birth just a minute apart can make all the difference by altering what they call the 'house cusps'," he said. "But in their work, they are happy to take whatever time they can get from a client."

The findings caused alarm and anger in astrological circles yesterday. Roy Gillett, the president of the Astrological Association of Great Britain, said the study's findings should be treated "with extreme caution" and accused Dr Dean of seeking to "discredit astrology".

Frank McGillion, a consultant to the Southampton-based Research Group for the Critical Study of Astrology, said of the newly published work: "It is simplistic and highly selective and does not cover all of the research." He added that he would lodge a complaint with the editors of the journal.

Astrologers have for centuries claimed to be able to extract deep insights into the personality and destiny of people using nothing more than the details of the time and place of birth.

Astrology has been growing in popularity. Surveys suggest that a majority of people in Britain believe in it, compared with only 13 per cent 50 years ago. The Association of Professional Astrologers claims that 80 per cent of Britons read star columns, and psychological studies have found that 60 per cent regularly read their horoscopes.

Despite the scepticism of scientists, astrology has grown to be a huge worldwide business, spawning thousands of telephone lines, internet sites and horoscope columns in newspapers and magazines.

It seems that no sector of society is immune to its attraction. A recent survey found that a third of science students subscribed to some aspects of astrology, while some supposedly hard-headed businessmen now support a thriving market in "financial astrology" - paying for predictions of trends such as the rise and fall of the stock market. Astrology supplements have been known to increase newspaper circulation figures and papers are prepared to pay huge sums to the most popular stargazers.

Some of the most popular figures in the field, such as Russell Grant, Mystic Meg and Shelley von Strunckel, can earn £600,000 or more a year.

A single profitable astrology website can be worth as much as £50 million.

When the Daily Mail discovered that its expert on the zodiac, Jonathan Cainer, was about to leave the newspaper in 1999, it reportedly offered him a £1 million salary and a £1 million bonus to stay. He still preferred the offer at the Daily Express: no salary but all the money from his telephone lines.

The time-twins study is only the start of the bad news for astrologers, however. Dr Dean and Prof Kelly also sought to determine whether stargazers could match a birth chart to the personality profile of a person among a random selection.

They reviewed the evidence from more than 40 studies involving over 700 astrologers, but found the results turned out no better than guesswork.

The success rate did not improve even when astrologers were given all the information they asked for and were confident they had made the right choice.

Dr Dean said the consistency of the findings weighed heavily against astrology.

"It has no acceptable mechanism, its principles are invalid and it has failed hundreds of tests," he said. "But no hint of these problems will be found in astrology books which, in effect, are exercises in deception."

Dr Dean is ready for a torrent of criticism. He said: "I'm probably the most hated person in astrology because I'm regarded as a turncoat."

***
THE LINK

DAR
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Post by Barbara Fitzpatrick »

I'd like to see the study & see what else other traits they investigated. I'd also like to see precisely what they mean by "within minutes" - so what is the name of the study, please. And is it online or am I going to have to try and get it from the library?

DAR
Why on earth, would (or should) anyone think there are character traits associated with the stars or time of birth?

BF
I keep say the stars are not causal - just happen to be in a certain location when something else is going on, which is why anyone could/would think they were causal, especially if they didn't know the actual cause.

I haven't done charts in over 20 years, and when I did it was more a Jungian personality trait index. The only character trait I can remember at the moment is something you'll blow off. I have never met, during the time period of over 10 years when I had the books and formulae to work out the positions, which I don't any more, anyone who consistently asked about what or whether a person has eaten as a response to any negative stimuli (person looks sad, tired, ill, upset, etc) who did not have either Cancer moon (time of month born) or Cancer Rising (time of day born). That's what I'm saying I'd like to see investigated. What or why on earth a particular trait like that is associated with a particular time relationship.
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Post by Dardedar »

Barbara Fitzpatrick wrote:I'd like to see the study & see what else other traits they investigated.
DAR
That was just a quick little article I took a minute to google. It references one study (an extensive one) of hundreds. I already gave you this link which is a huge resourse and should give you a good days read. It is here:

www.astrology-and-science.com

Astrology & Science
The Scientific Exploration of Astrology
An archive of articles by researchers.
Covers scientific, historical and philosophical
issues, and the results of scientific research.
No horoscopes, no predictions.

Currently 56 articles with abstracts and references.
Updated Aug 2003, Dec 2004, Dec 2005.

Here is a nice summary of the entire site

***
Grand summary of entire website
302,000 words reduced to 600 words

Abstract -- Astrology ranges from the trivial to the profound. Today, for the first time in twenty centuries, we can answer most questions about astrology. Few people are aware of this revolution in our understanding, hence this website. The answers are often bad news for astrology. But there is more to astrology than being true or false.

Profound vs trivial astrology
Astrology, from the Greek astron, star, and logos, discourse, is the study (generally nonscientific) of supposed relationships between the heavens and human affairs. It has nothing to do with astronomy, the scientific study of celestial objects. Astrology takes two forms. One is the serious and profound astrology of journals and consulting rooms. The other is the popular but trivial entertainment of sun sign astrology columns and phone lines. They are not the same. Both forms are addressed on this website.

The research revolution
Astrologers say the heavens reflect our destiny from the cradle to the grave. Could this be true? Could the heavens really reflect our destiny? This question has been furiously debated for more than twenty centuries, but an answer has been possible only since the 1970s, when advances in relevant areas (astronomy, psychology, statistics, research design) and a decisive technology (home computers) led to a revolution in scientific research into astrology. Not to be confused with what astrologers traditionally call "research", the uncritical examination of birth charts.

Hundreds of empirical studies
Before 1950 almost no empirical studies of astrology existed. But by 2000 over one hundred empirical studies of astrology had appeared in psychology journals and four hundred in astrology journals, equivalent to about 200 man-years of scientific research. And they keep coming. The findings have been clear and consistent whether obtained by astrologers, by scientists, or by both in collaboration -- astrology has not contributed to human knowledge, it has failed hundreds of tests, it has no acceptable mechanism other than hidden persuaders (see below), and users do not usefully agree on basics such as which zodiac to use or even on what a given birth chart indicates. Today, for the first time in twenty centuries, we can say with some certainty that no, the heavens do not reflect our destiny.

Hidden persuaders
Also, astrology is easy to explain. Users do not guard against hidden persuaders (reasoning errors and statistical artifacts, see Artifacts in reasoning under Doing Scientific Research), which is why an actually invalid astrology seems to work, why users can accept erroneous conclusions as true, and why scientists tend to see astrologers as hopelessly uninformed. That astrologers are in fact mostly nice people who genuinely wish to help others does not excuse their being uninformed. Nevertheless there is more to astrology than being true or false, see Case for and against astrology under Adroit Utilities. Astrology should be neither lightly embraced nor lightly dismissed.

Keeping up to date
Few people are aware of the above revolution in our understanding of astrology. It is almost never mentioned in astrology books or on astrology websites. So the present website was started in July 2000 by former astrologer Rudolf H Smit from Zwolle in the Netherlands. The aim is to provide readable articles on scientific research into astrology that are also sensitive to astrology's merits. All articles have two levels of abstract to save your time, and all articles are in plain English. Just browse the home page.
***

I'd also like to see precisely what they mean by "within minutes"
DAR
I think they mean, birthtime, "within minutes."
- so what is the name of the study, please. And is it online or am I going to have to try and get it from the library?
DAR
No need for that, I think you will find enough critical analysis of astrology claims without leaving the comfort of your computer.

You can read a PDF of this study by Dean (24 pages) here:

http://www.imprint.co.uk/pdf/Dean.pdf

If you need more, just let me know.

D.
-------------------------
"Eleven representative views of astrologers 1863-2005 imply that astrology is all-revealing, factual, inarguably true, applicable to everything including past lives, enthralling to thinkers, soon to dominate scientific thought, and more. Just study it seriously, they say, and you will be convinced it works. But seven representative views of scientists 1930-1998 who studied it seriously imply the exact opposite. This conflict of views can be explained by differences in what astrology means to different people, by differences in what astrology claims, and by the failure of astrologers to allow for non-astrological factors (hidden persuaders) that lead to astrology-like outcomes. The case against astrology is that it is untrue, it has failed hundreds of tests, and astrologers do not usefully agree on what a given birth chart indicates. The case for astrology is that a warm and sympathetic astrologer provides low-cost non-threatening therapy that is otherwise hard to come by...." --Ibid
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Post by Guest »

I read the Dean study. I wish I remembered my stat class better - to know if the statistical model is valid. However, from what I do remember - the 1st time twin test actually interviewed 18 people and extrapolated from there, so sample size is too small. The 2nd test was more valid in that it actually interviewed over 2000 people and did not extrapolate. Unfortunately for the point I'm trying to get to, most of what they were interviewing for (as far as I can tell, since the list was not included), I would consider divination, not character traits. That would significantly reduce the number of mean "hits" in the category/phenomena I am looking for, by lumping it in with a bunch of stuff I'm not looking for. Especially if nothing I am looking for was actually tested (which, again, I don't know since only a few of the 110 "traits" they tested for were listed in the article, and those listed weren't what I was looking for). The article is actually tangentally addressing what I want - if there is some correlation, but it isn't astrology (and there was a minor neg correlation in some of the studies), what is it? They are suggesting psi - which Dar & Doug should find equally irritating.
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Post by Guest »

The above is Barbara Fitzpatrick - for some reason it didn't autologin this morning & I didn't notice until after I'd posted my comments.
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Post by Betsy »

There is one of those things this weekend at the Clarion, I think (or was it last weekend?) -- I was thinking about going just for kicks - I think it's called the "Spirit Fair" - they have fortune tellers and psychics and magic t-shirts, and whatnot. Sounds fun...Anybody game?
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Post by Barbara Fitzpatrick »

Which Clarion (Fay or Springdale)? When, how much, and what time? It sounds like fun.
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Post by Doug »

Betsy wrote:There is one of those things this weekend at the Clarion, I think (or was it last weekend?) -- I was thinking about going just for kicks - I think it's called the "Spirit Fair" - they have fortune tellers and psychics and magic t-shirts, and whatnot. Sounds fun...Anybody game?
DOUG
I'm game.
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Dean Study Debunks Astrology--Right?

Post by Doug »

Anonymous wrote:The article is actually tangentally addressing what I want - if there is some correlation, but it isn't astrology (and there was a minor neg correlation in some of the studies), what is it? They are suggesting psi - which Dar & Doug should find equally irritating.
DOUG
Who is suggesting psi? What evidence do you have of any correlation between character traits and astrology claims?
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Post by Savonarola »

Betsy wrote:There is one of those things this weekend at the Clarion, I think (or was it last weekend?) -- I was thinking about going just for kicks - I think it's called the "Spirit Fair" - they have fortune tellers and psychics and magic t-shirts, and whatnot. Sounds fun...Anybody game?
I sure hope this doesn't conflict with that something else taking place this weekend...
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Post by Betsy »

Right, Sav, I'm sure everyone can do both!!

If I'm even on the right weekend. I saw an ad in the paper for the Spirit Fair at the FAYETTEVILLE Clarion, but now I can't be sure it's this weekend - will have to check ....
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Post by Dardedar »

DAR
Here's the scoop:

***
Spirit Body and Soul Fair
Event Dates: 03/25 - 03/26

Location: Clarion Inn 1-540 at Hwy 62 Exit, Fayetteville

Web Address: http://www.SpiritFair.com

Description: Explore and share alternative spirituality. Crystals, stones, herbs, oils, sacred jewelry. Hands-on-healing and energy work. Intuitive readings. Crossing over messages. Lectures on alternative spirituality. Living your soul purpose, how to talk to your angels and more.

Admission: $5

Contact Person: Cyndy Green.

Contact Information:
Phone for Public to call: 918-407-3392
E-Mail: TammyandCyndy@aol.com

http://www.fayettevilletourism.com/even ... tm?id=3270
***

So, is it morally wrong to give these folks $5? I am sure the vast majority of them are sincere. I am also pretty sure it is hopeless trying to teach them to think critically about such things at their little sales fair. I don't find these things (clusters of really gullible people) as funny as I used to. Maybe if we go drinking first.

D.
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Post by Savonarola »

Darrel wrote:So, is it morally wrong to give these folks $5? I am sure the vast majority of them are sincere. I am also pretty sure it is hopeless trying to teach them to think critically about such things at their little sales fair.
If they can charge $5 to demonstrate true supernatural abilities for our benefit and enjoyment, they should each be willing to give the Fayfreethinkers $5 to be tested for our $1000 prize. Implied odds are in their favor if they're right just once (or more, obviously) out of 200 attempts.

Hmm... is it too late to get a booth for ourselves? "Come test your supernatural abilities! Win $1000!"
<Physt> If 2 billion people believed in FSM.. we would use ID as the joke.. "YEAH, an invisible man just created everything".."Har har"
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Post by Dardedar »

Savonarola wrote:
Darrel wrote: Hmm... is it too late to get a booth for ourselves? "Come test your supernatural abilities! Win $1000!"
DAR
a) I bet it is too late

b) I bet it costs $100+ (but I'll check)

c) I bet they would censor us (not allow us)
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Post by Savonarola »

That was a joke, Dar... Not that any of the "exhibitors" would actually submit themselves for testing anyway..
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Post by Dardedar »

DAR
No joke, we seriously considered getting a booth at the equally wacky UFO conference in Eureka. We definitely would like to have a booth at this foo foo fair to challenge these folks, but the considerations a, b, c, probably make it not possible. I checked their website and couldn't find anything about the cost of having a booth. But it's $22 per year to have a little link on her website. This is a money making venture and I bet booth space is a couple hundred bucks.
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Post by Savonarola »

I see.. :shock:

Oh well. Testing all the quacks would've been fun.
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Post by Barbara Fitzpatrick »

Doug - that was the purpose of the article Dar sent me to - investigating if there was any connect between astrology and psi. They didn't find one, but the "hits" for correct predictions, while not statistically significant in the tests they noted, were slightly neg for astrologers, but slightly pos for psi.

If I ever get the energy up to hunt through more of Dar's links, I may find one actually testing what I am looking for, but this article only possibly tangentially hit somewhere in the area.
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Post by Barbara Fitzpatrick »

I went to the spirit fair - not much of a fair - a double seminar room at the Clarion with about 25 vendors - had the cards read (at the cheapest one - $10) & was told there'd be big changes at work by next October & that I was a nun in a former life (I was congratulated on having matured from religion to spirituality). It was fun, but the incense got to me in short order.
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