Posted: Sun Nov 26, 2006 12:05 pm
Darrel agrees with my claim that gold is an inflation hedge, both explicitly, and with the evidence he offers. I.e. "For over one hundred years from 1800 through to 1970, the cost of gold remained fairly stable with a very gradual rise from 19 US dollars an ounce to 38 US dollars an ounce." In other words, gold was an inflation hedge from 1800 through 1970.
Note that statements about inflation hedges concern hoarding, not investing. I.e. Which holds value better - hoarding gold or paper money? Thus, giving one or the other a handicap by assuming a 5% interest for one is not legitimate. If you do assume such an investment, you need to assume it about both. E.g. Per Doug's observation, at the moment of investment, one might have invested a dollar's worth of gold or a dollar's worth of paper. But then you have assumed away anything having to do with inflation hedging. If you want to assume compound interest, you should assume a 5% increase in the weight of gold per year versus a 5% increase in nominal value of a paper dollar, but then you are just unnecessarily complicating the hoarding question only to get the identical result - that gold is an inflation hedge.
Darrel then makes a different claim: that, though gold is an inflation hedge, it is a bad one. This is a different, and more complex question. First you have to ask, compared to what? Certainly, with 20-20 hindsight, we can say that for the past 20 years gold has not been as good an inflation hedge as real estate in Northwest Arkansas. And I agree that land, in general, is also a good inflation hedge. Almost anything with utility to mankind and some degree of scarcity is an inflation hedge. Another complication concerns relative risk, and the fact that gold is a commodity and land is not. (I.e. gold is homogeneous, one 1 oz. chunk is replacable by another; land varies tremendously in quality, one lot is not the same as another.) Also, there is a difference in liquidity - its easier and quicker to sell a piece of gold than a particular piece of land. Finally, there is the consideration that one can buy gold (or silver) in small quantities, i.e. it doesn't require as much wealth to buy a chunk of gold as land or buildings. So I neither agree nor disagree that gold is a bad inflation hedge, the statement being too fuzzy and the comparison unclear. I'm satisfied with limiting my contention to: Gold is an inflation hedge. Without a specific alternative to compare it with, I'd call anything which hold values better than paper money a "good" hedge, but that's using "good" in different way than Darrel.
It appears to me that much of Darrel's "disagreement" is based on an equivocation of "inflation hedge" and "investment." Something can be a good inflation hedge without being a good investment (especially in hindsight.) He clearly makes this equivocation when he makes such statements as, "How do you get interest or compound interest on an investment in a chunk of gold!?"
Bottom line: inflation hedging is about hoarding; investment is about production of wealth. Our latest conversation is basically: "This is an apple." "No, that is a bad orange."
Note that statements about inflation hedges concern hoarding, not investing. I.e. Which holds value better - hoarding gold or paper money? Thus, giving one or the other a handicap by assuming a 5% interest for one is not legitimate. If you do assume such an investment, you need to assume it about both. E.g. Per Doug's observation, at the moment of investment, one might have invested a dollar's worth of gold or a dollar's worth of paper. But then you have assumed away anything having to do with inflation hedging. If you want to assume compound interest, you should assume a 5% increase in the weight of gold per year versus a 5% increase in nominal value of a paper dollar, but then you are just unnecessarily complicating the hoarding question only to get the identical result - that gold is an inflation hedge.
Darrel then makes a different claim: that, though gold is an inflation hedge, it is a bad one. This is a different, and more complex question. First you have to ask, compared to what? Certainly, with 20-20 hindsight, we can say that for the past 20 years gold has not been as good an inflation hedge as real estate in Northwest Arkansas. And I agree that land, in general, is also a good inflation hedge. Almost anything with utility to mankind and some degree of scarcity is an inflation hedge. Another complication concerns relative risk, and the fact that gold is a commodity and land is not. (I.e. gold is homogeneous, one 1 oz. chunk is replacable by another; land varies tremendously in quality, one lot is not the same as another.) Also, there is a difference in liquidity - its easier and quicker to sell a piece of gold than a particular piece of land. Finally, there is the consideration that one can buy gold (or silver) in small quantities, i.e. it doesn't require as much wealth to buy a chunk of gold as land or buildings. So I neither agree nor disagree that gold is a bad inflation hedge, the statement being too fuzzy and the comparison unclear. I'm satisfied with limiting my contention to: Gold is an inflation hedge. Without a specific alternative to compare it with, I'd call anything which hold values better than paper money a "good" hedge, but that's using "good" in different way than Darrel.
It appears to me that much of Darrel's "disagreement" is based on an equivocation of "inflation hedge" and "investment." Something can be a good inflation hedge without being a good investment (especially in hindsight.) He clearly makes this equivocation when he makes such statements as, "How do you get interest or compound interest on an investment in a chunk of gold!?"
Bottom line: inflation hedging is about hoarding; investment is about production of wealth. Our latest conversation is basically: "This is an apple." "No, that is a bad orange."