Sylvia Browne Looks Foolish On Radio Show

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Dardedar
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Post by Dardedar »

Savonarola wrote: So what's going on here? Am I picking up electromagnetic signals from my CD player? Is my subconscious counting songs and getting lucky? Am I just plain psychic? I'd like to hear your interpretations of this.
DAR
Simple, and rather mundane luck I would say. When I was in Vegas I played a little roulette. At one point the number 16 came up three times in a row. What's the odds of that? I think it's 54,872. Probably happens every 15 minutes in that town. No biggie.
Each human experiences hundreds if not thousands of events every day. Times that by 6.5 billion and this makes for trillions of events. It would be extremely unlikely for extremely, profoundly weird flukey things NOT to occur. And of course, we remember when they do occur (sometimes for a lifetime), and we forget when they don't occur.

D.
-----------------------
"Not only does a deck of playing cards contain 52 cards, but the words "Ace", "two", "three", "four", "five", "six", "seven", "eight", "nine", "ten", "Jack", "Queen" and "King" add up to exactly 52 letters.
You can't tell me that this is by chance. There must be a gambling god!" --Doug Krueger
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Post by Savonarola »

Darrel wrote:Simple, and rather mundane luck I would say.
If you had ever played cards with me, you would know that I have been "blessed" with incredibly bad luck.
Darrel wrote:Each human experiences hundreds if not thousands of events every day.
But I don't get "feelings" for these other events.
Darrel wrote:Times that by 6.5 billion and this makes for trillions of events.
But I'm just -- er, hmm, add, carry the one... yeah, one man.
Darrel wrote:It would be extremely unlikely for extremely, profoundly weird flukey things NOT to occur. And of course, we remember when they do occur (sometimes for a lifetime), and we forget when they don't occur.
This is, of course, the counterargument I use all the time. As such, I made a conscious effort to take note of my incorrect predictions and compare the quantity of them with the quantity of correct predictions. While this does indeed reveal more mistakes, the math still does not explain the results.
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Barbara Fitzpatrick wrote:DAR - It wasn't gas - please give me credit for knowing what was normal
DAR
I agree gas is very unlikely. That's why I used it. Because even as unlikely as it is that it was gas (and there are numerous other things it could have been), it is FAR more likely IMO than that a psychic discerned a correct diagnosis.
(Remember the late 19th Century brought us Christian Science...
DAR
Incidentally, those guys are dying and quickly. Pure claptrap and good ridance. Good people though, I know many of them and play piano at a Christian Science nursing home (no real nurses allowed of course), once a month.
Chiropractic College is very science-based medicine - the 1st 2 years are especially similar, practically interchangeable.
DAR
Since I don't think their main foundational belief "subluxations" is science based I am obviously not going consider Chiropractic "very science based." I do think they have their place and may be of some use for some people. Like many "alternative" methods, they are desperately trying to become mainstream and have had some progress, but limited, and quite rightly. And they are filled with quacks making all sorts of outrageous claims as I note above and have experienced first, second hand and in material have I have read.
Chiropractors don't prescibe drugs, as with psychologists, because they aren't dealing with organic/internal medicine problems.
DAR
Not so. I can bury you in examples of chiropractors making claims that deal with organic/internal medicine problems. I am sure there are a good percentage that don't. I think most do.
Subluxation is exceedingly provable by x-ray and Medicare requires x-rays before they will cover the treatment.
DAR
That runs quite contrary to what I have read regarding subluxation. You might give this a read:

Chiropractic's Elusive "Subluxation"

http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRel ... rosub.html

An excerpt:

***
Are Subluxations Visible?

Chiropractors also disagree on whether their "subluxations" are visible on x-ray films. "Straight" chiropractors tend to believe that they cause nerve interference, are readily visible, and that virtually everyone gets them. Most other chiropractors (commonly referred to as "mixers") define subluxations loosely and see them when it suits their convenience. Chiropractors who reject subluxation theory consider them invisible but have been forced to acknowledge them to get paid by Medicare. When a respected chiropractic researcher was asked whether he had ever seen a subluxation on an x-ray film, he smiled and jokingly replied, "With my eyes closed." [2]

Old chiropractic textbooks show "before and after" x-rays that are supposed to demonstrate subluxations. In 1971, hoping to get a first-hand look at such x-rays, I challenged the local chiropractic society to demonstrate ten sets. They refused, suggesting instead that I ask the Palmer School to show me some from its "teaching files." When I did, however, a school official replied:

Chiropractors do not make the claim to be able to read a specific subluxation from an x-ray film. [They] can read spinal distortion, which indicates the possible presence of a subluxation and can confirm the actual presence of a subluxation by other physical findings [3].

In 1973, Congress authorized payment under Medicare for chiropractic treatment of "subluxations demonstrated by x-rays to exist." In 1972, to enable payment, chiropractors held a consensus conference that redefined "subluxations" to include common findings that others could see. The document, several pages long, described the supposed x-ray manifestations of 18 types of "subluxations," including "flexion malposition," "extension malposition," "lateral flexion malposition," "rotational malposition," "hypomobility" (also called "fixation subluxation"), "hypermobility," "aberrant motion," "altered interosseous spacing," "foraminal occlusion," scoliosis, and several conditions in which "gross displacements" are evident [4]. I have been unable to determine how many billions of dollars chiropractors have received from Medicare since the law took effect.

Some of these terms are fancy names for the minor degenerative changes that occur as people age. The conditions often have nothing to do with a patient's symptoms and are not changed by chiropractic treatment. Some, as acknowledged by the conferees, are not even visible on x-ray films. In 1997, Congress amended the law to permit payment for subluxations diagnosed by other means -- a policy scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2000.

Chiropractors also differ about how to find "subluxations" and where they are located. In addition to seeing them on x-ray films, chiropractors say they can find them by: (a) feeling the spine with their hand, (b) measuring skin temperature near the spine with an instrument, (c) concluding that one of the patient's legs is "functionally" longer than the other, (d) studying the shadows produced by a device that projects a beam of light onto the patient's back, (e) weighing the patient on special scales, and/or (f) detecting "nerve irritation" with a device. Undercover investigations in which many chiropractors have examined the same patient have found that the diagnoses and proposed treatments differed greatly from one practitioner to another.

Subluxation is also a medical term. The medical definition is incomplete or partial dislocation -- a condition, visible on x-ray films, in which the bony surfaces of a joint no longer face each other exactly but remain partially aligned. No such condition can be corrected by chiropractic treatment.
***
Some of the "alternative" diagnostic procedures are quite valid and are moving into "traditional" medicine (hair analysis, nutritional deficiencies and allergy testing, etc).
DAR
They are trying and I wish them the best of luck. I have been agnostic about acupuncture and they have had some of their claims verified, however no chi energy meridians or chakras ever detected in anyway. And the latest shows it doesn't matter where you stick the needles (also electrical stimulation works just as well).

***
5. ACUPUNCTURE: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE YOU STICK THE NEEDLE.
According to an article in Lancet Neurology, German researchers
found that Chinese acupuncture worked about as well as drugs in
treating arthritis, but so did sham acupuncture, in which the
needle is inserted in the wrong place. --Bob Park, What's New
***

As I like to say, there is regular science based medicine which we use because it has been shown to work, and then there is everything else. If the "alternative" category wants to join the mainstream category, then they just need to get on board. Survival of the fittest. But they want to change the rules, see below.
A number of "alternative" medical techniques are hitting mainstream that were considered quackery when your 1981 study was done.
DAR
I watch this topic pretty close with a couple of my skeptic magazines. I think the alternative folks are exaggerating their acceptance into mainstream unless you mean just the regular gullible folks dabbling with things on their own.

Consider:

***
Under the rules of science, people who make the claims bear the burden of proof. It is their responsibility to conduct suitable studies and report them in sufficient detail to permit evaluation and confirmation by others. Instead of subjecting their work to scientific standards, promoters of questionable "alternatives" would like to change the rules by which they are judged and regulated. "Alternative" promoters may give lip service to these standards. However, they regard personal experience, subjective judgment, and emotional satisfaction as preferable to objectivity and hard evidence. Instead of conducting scientific studies, they use anecdotes and testimonials to promote their practices and political maneuvering to keep regulatory agencies at bay. As noted in a recent New England Journal of Medicine editorial:

What most sets alternative medicine apart . . . is that it has not been scientifically tested and its advocates largely deny the need for such testing. By testing, we mean the marshaling of rigorous evidence of safety and efficacy, as required by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the approval of drugs and by the best peer-reviewed medical journals for the publication of research reports. Of course, many treatments used in conventional medicine have not been rigorously tested, either, but the scientific community generally acknowledges that this is a failing that needs to be remedied. Many advocates of alternative medicine, in contrast, believe the scientific method is simply not applicable to their remedies. . . .

Alternative medicine also distinguishes itself by an ideology that largely ignores biologic mechanisms, often disparage modern science, and relies on what are purported to be ancient practices and natural remedies (which are seen as somehow being simultaneously more potent and less toxic than conventional medicine). Accordingly, herbs or mixtures of herbs are considered superior to the active compounds isolated in the laboratory. And healing methods such as homeopathy and therapeutic touch are fervently promoted despite not only the lack of good clinical evidence of effectiveness, but the presence of a rationale that violates fundamental scientific laws -- surely a circumstance that requires more, rather than less, evidence [5].

[5] # Angell M, Kassirer J. Alternative Medicine -- The risks of untested and unregulated remedies. New England Journal of Medicine 339:839-841, 1998.
***

And then there is:

***
The NIH Debacle

Many news reports have exaggerated the significance of the National Institutes of Health (NIH)'s Office of Alternative Medicine (OAM). Creation of this office was spearheaded by promoters of questionable cancer therapies who wanted more attention paid to their methods. Most of OAM's advisory panel members have been promoters of "alternative" methods, and none of its publications have criticized any method. In 1994, the OAM's first director resigned, charging that political interference had hampered his ability to carry out OAM's mission in a scientific manner [9]. In 1998, Congress upgraded OAM into an NIH center with an annual budget of $50 million. Today the agency is called the National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (NCCAM) and has an annual budget exceeding $100 million [10].

When OAM was created, I stated: "It remains to be seen whether such studies will yield useful results. Even if some do, their benefit is unlikely to outweigh the publicity bonanza given to questionable methods." In 2002, Wallace I. Sampson, M.D., editor of the Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine summed up what has happened:

It is time for Congress to defund the National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine. After ten years of existence and over $200 million in expenditures, it has not proved effectiveness for any "alternative" method. It has added evidence of ineffectiveness of some methods that we knew did not work before NCCAM was formed. NCCAM proposals for 2002 and 2003 promise no more. Its major accomplishment has been to ensure the positions of medical school faculty who might become otherwise employed -- in more productive pursuits [10].

http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRel ... twary.html

The standard medical treatment for pinched nerves is muscle relaxants and pain killers & hope it rights itself. Chiropractic standard response is move the vertebra back so it's not pinching the nerve.
DAR
You're right. My ex-wife had all the symptoms of a pinched nerve in her neck (she's a violinist). Very painful. Neither doctor nor chiropractor helped in the least. It went away about a week later as I remember.

Oh, and while chiropractors can't prescribe drugs, they can prescribe hot tubs. I got a prescription for one once about 12 years ago. I'll be using it tonight. Very effective! (and I wrote it off since I had the prescription)
...even as late Dr. Palmer the best way to kill your wife was to made sure she got the best medical treatment money could buy when she was pregnant -
DAR
I agree. Send her to the homeopathic fellow for a good placebo! I am not joking.
now am I supposed to base my opinion of the current state of medical science on that?)
DAR
No, but it is interesting to see where it came from. I think a lot of them still do believe a lot of the older nonsense, but this shouldn't tarnish the good fellows who don't.
I judge chiropractic by the current state of practice and I still say they are filled with quacks. Just a few years I called around and did a little survey myself while looking for someone to help me with my neck. The list I gave in the last post of all the wacky things they promote, really are (largely) being promoted locally by these quacks. That list again:

***
(applied kinesiology), projecting lines on his back to read body contours (Moire contour analysis), reading the iris and comparing markings with a chart (iridology), measuring leg lengths for unevenness (one chiropractor said Brown's right leg was shorter, another said his left leg was shorter), measuring skin surface temperature differences, and palpation [16]. Other dubious diagnostic methods used by some chiropractors include pendulum divining, electroacupuncture, reflexology, hair analysis, herbal crystallization analysis, computerized "nutritional deficiency" questionnaires, a cytotoxic food allergy test, and the Reams urine and saliva test.
***

And lots of other crap too.

D.
----------------------------
"Don't Let Chiropractors Fool You

"X-rays and Medicare

Most chiropractors claim that x-rays help them locate the "subluxations" that D.D. Palmer envisioned. But they do not agree among themselves about what subluxations are. Some chiropractors believe they are displaced bones that can be seen on x-rays and can be put back in place by spinal adjustments. Others define subluxations vaguely or say they do not necessarily show on x-rays. But what chiropractors contend about x-rays also depends upon who asks and how the question is posed.

Chiropractic coverage under Medicare, which began in 1973, was limited to manual manipulation of the spine for the treatment of "subluxations demonstrated by x-rays to exist." To enable payment, federal officials accepted an elaborate chiropractic "definition" of subluxations for which payment could be made. During the mid-1980s, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the Inspector General (OIG) surveyed 145 chiropractors by telephone about their billing practices. Eighty-four percent said that some subluxations do not show on x-rays. Nearly half responded that when billing Medicare, they "could always find something" (by x-ray or physical examination) to justify the diagnosis, or they actually tailored the diagnosis to obtain reimbursement. The OIG's report noted that chiropractic manipulation was the ninth most frequently billed procedure under Medicare during 1983.

In 1997, after many years of intense lobbying, chiropractors persuaded Congress to remove the mandatory x-ray provision. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 eliminates the requirement as of January 1, 2000, and requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services to develop and implement utilization guidelines for chiropractic coverage when a subluxation has not been demonstrated by X-ray. The new policy is expected to increase the number of claims Medicare pays for chiropractic services."

http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRel ... chiro.html
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Post by Tamara »

I have to agree with Betsy that the chiropractic stuff is a little dull. And like some of you I have had experiences that I can only explain as "psychic". The "feelings" that Sav brought up are familiar to me too.

About ten years ago I had a dream that I was in a gambling town and had a feeling of good things to come. A few days later I had a similar dream, but this time I was actually gambling (in the dream) while feeling that same premonition. At the end of the same week I had another dream like the first two, but this time I was gambling and saw myself winning a jackpot.

That morning when I awoke I asked my roommate if she wanted to go to Reno. I had thought of going there a few times in the past, but the feeling in the dream was such that I felt compelled to go in a hurry.

A few weeks later I am in Reno gambling at the hotel we had stayed at for the past five days. We were due to leave in two hours. I hadn't won any money and we were just going kill time in our hotel before getting on the bus to the airport. Then the feeling struck me. I felt that I had to go to another casino. I actually felt as though I was following the feeling down the street. I entered one establishment, but it felt wrong, so I continued on.

When I walked into the Comstock casino something felt good about that place. I played a handful of machines, winning a little here and there, but the feeling was to keep moving. I selected an older machine and seemed to be on a bit of a roll. I pulled the lever about ten times, winning something on most pulls. I felt no desire to move from that machine. Then, the next time I dropped in my three nickles, big gambler that I am, I hit the three sevens. Three sevens was the best you could do on that nickle machine. The payout was $5,000. I got back to my friends in our hotel and they didn't believe that I had won five grand. It seemed unlikely to them since I had only been gone about 20 minutes. I won the money about 5 minutes after walking in that particular casino that felt right.

It sure seemed like some kind of psychic event when the entire reason for me deciding to go at that time rested on a feeling I had in a series of dreams. Then when that same feeling appeared and motivated me to leave my friends and head off to some random casino for no apparent reason, only to end up winning like my dream had illustrated, I felt there was something unusual going on without a doubt.

I have had a few other experiences that have given me reason to believe that there is some truth to psychic experiences. I have never found them to be reliable or controlable, so there is no way to test the validity of these experiences. But like it is for many of you, the lack of outside acceptance hasn't altered my perception of these events. That said, I do agree that most of the so-called psychic ability out there is either fraudulent or a lot of self-delusion. I do not exclude myself from the self-deluded. I have seen many of my past so-called psychic experiences crumble away under the harsh light of skeptism, but there are a few left that have remained inexplicable to all reason.
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Post by Doug »

Tamara wrote:I won the money about 5 minutes after walking in that particular casino that felt right.
DOUG
Wow, that's amazing.

Until you realize that about 10,000 other people were in Vegas at THEIR dreamt casino that same night because THEY dreamed something similar or identical to what you dreamed, and they DIDN'T win.

You won, you are amazed. They lost, they feel like idiots. Not everyone wins, not everyone loses. Nothing supernatural about that. As with everything in Vegas, just look at the odds. Tens of thousands of people have dreams that they win in Vegas and go there. On any given night, thousands are playing for that very reason. Not all of them lose.
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Post by Doug »

Betsy wrote:But I, myself, have experienced random things being told to my brain that I couldn't have known. Usually useless information, so I have no idea why it would even happen. Like what I told you about the name "Bonnie" coming to mind when my mother and a friend were trying to remember some guy's dead wife. Out of thousands of names, the right one just came to me. But if you asked me now to think of someone I don't know's name for $10,000, I sure couldn't do it.
DOUG
And on what grounds can you rule out that you had never before heard that person's name and perhaps subconsciously recalled it?
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Tamara wrote:I won the money about 5 minutes after walking in that particular casino that felt right.
DOUG
Want to hear a really, REALLY big laugh?

Next time you go to Vegas, go up to a pit boss and ask him or her if anyone has ever lost big despite being convinced that the casino "felt right."

Famous last words in Vegas:
"My system is foolproof."
"Give me the money I told you not to give me."
"This casino feels right."
"She said she was 18!"
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Post by Doug »

Savonarola wrote:However, during my last trip, for example, I "felt" song #5 (out of 23 on the disc) correctly. I've gotten two in a row before. This phenomenon isn't explained away by mathematical probability, but it's not repeatable upon demand or immune to the occasional "miss," either.

So what's going on here?
DOUG
You are not infallible in this song guessing thing, since you admit that you "miss."

So sometimes you get it right, sometimes you get it wrong. When you remember your guessing game, you select the correct times because they are more memorable and remember less well the times you missed. This skews the data. This phenomenon of selective remembering is well documented in psychology.

Keep a written log of hits and misses and the amazement will disappear.
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Post by Tamara »

Doug wrote: Until you realize that about 10,000 other people were in Vegas at THEIR dreamt casino that same night because THEY dreamed something similar or identical to what you dreamed, and they DIDN'T win.
I have never met anyone that went to Vegas because of three consecutive dreams in one week, not to say that they don't exist but 10,000 every five days, c'mon. I don't buy it. I'm not talking about fantasy dreams of getting rich here, I am talking about actual while you are sleeping images and not just one, but three in a row. I was also in Reno not Vegas fyi.

The feeling that prompted me to go to the casino where I won was what made it a memorable event for me. I had no intention of leaving my friends that day. We were all content to just hang in the hotel waiting for our bus to arrive. The only reason I won the money was because I literally followed a feeling that came out of the blue. Of course, I cannot prove this to you or anyone else since feelings cannot be proven or disproven. So, you cannot prove it didn't happen to me and I cannot prove that it did to you. All I can prove is that I came out $5,000 richer in the end and I could take that to the bank. :D
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Post by Savonarola »

Doug wrote:When you remember your guessing game, you select the correct times because they are more memorable and remember less well the times you missed. This skews the data. This phenomenon of selective remembering is well documented in psychology.

Keep a written log of hits and misses and the amazement will disappear.
But earlier, Savonarola wrote:This is, of course, the counterargument I use all the time. As such, I made a conscious effort to take note of my incorrect predictions and compare the quantity of them with the quantity of correct predictions. While this does indeed reveal more mistakes, the math [in terms of probability] still does not explain the results.
Any other ideas?
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Post by Dardedar »

DOUG
Keep a written log of hits and misses and the amazement will disappear.
DAR
If it doesn't, lets set up a test and you can go for the $1,000 prize (which immediately qualifies you for Randi's $1,000,000 prize. I can't think of anyone more deserving.

It may be that CD players don't use a truly random algorithm but instead grab from a handful of preset scattered patterns. Just a thought.

Very easy to test.

D.
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DAR
An interesting article on coincidences:

http://www.csicop.org/si/9809/coincidence.html
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Post by Doug »

Tamara wrote:I have never met anyone that went to Vegas because of three consecutive dreams in one week, not to say that they don't exist but 10,000 every five days, c'mon. I don't buy it. I'm not talking about fantasy dreams of getting rich here, I am talking about actual while you are sleeping images and not just one, but three in a row. I was also in Reno not Vegas fyi.
DOUG
Reno, Vegas, whatever. They get people who had dreams, people who got lucky at something else and decided that they'd be lucky at the games, people who have "fooproof" systems, and so on. All the time. It's very common.
Tammy wrote:The only reason I won the money was because I literally followed a feeling that came out of the blue.
DOUG
The only reason a lot of people have lost is that they had a "feeling" or a dream or a system or a "hunch," and so on.
Tammy wrote:Of course, I cannot prove this to you or anyone else since feelings cannot be proven or disproven. So, you cannot prove it didn't happen to me and I cannot prove that it did to you. All I can prove is that I came out $5,000 richer in the end and I could take that to the bank. :D
DOUG
I don't doubt that you had that feeling. What I doubt is that it was the cause of you winning as opposed to losing. I doubt this because there is a better explanation that does not require a supernatural or paranormal element.
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Post by Doug »

Darrel wrote:DAR
An interesting article on coincidences:

http://www.csicop.org/si/9809/coincidence.html
DOUG
Wow, I was about to cite that article! What a coincid...Never mind.
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Post by Doug »

Savonarola wrote:
Doug wrote:When you remember your guessing game, you select the correct times because they are more memorable and remember less well the times you missed. This skews the data. This phenomenon of selective remembering is well documented in psychology.

Keep a written log of hits and misses and the amazement will disappear.
But earlier, Savonarola wrote:This is, of course, the counterargument I use all the time. As such, I made a conscious effort to take note of my incorrect predictions and compare the quantity of them with the quantity of correct predictions. While this does indeed reveal more mistakes, the math [in terms of probability] still does not explain the results.
Any other ideas?
DOUG
Perhaps Darrel has the answer. It is very difficult to have a truly random number generated electronically, especially in hardware as opposed to software. At least, as I recall, it was a chronic problem in the early days of computing.

It is possible that you have subconsciously figured out within a certain degree of probability what the algorithm is for calling up the next songs.

However, we are still talking about some vague "guesses." If you made a "conscious effort" to keep track of hits and misses, that's fine, but a written log would be better. And what was the rate of hits and misses? And would you wait until a particular song to start guessing? And would you guess the same one each time? And so on. There are many details still missing, so it is difficult to evaluate the situation.
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Post by Doug »

DOUG
A description of some Spanish experiments on gamblers' illusion of control of random events.
One of the most important contributions to the study of cognitive bias in gambling is that of Langer (1975), with her experiments on the illusion of control. Langer’s hypothesis attempted to explain previous observations in which some people treated random events as controllable. For example, Henslin (1967) observed that dice players behaved as though they could control the result of the throw: when they needed low numbers they rolled the dice gently; when they needed high numbers they cast them in an energetic fashion. Previously, Strickland, Lewicki and Katz (1966) had shown experimentally that gamblers bet more money and were more confident of winning when they threw the dice themselves than when someone else threw for them, even though the probability of winning was the same in the two cases. Langer (1975) tried to demonstrate that this illusion of control was produced when situations of luck or chance included elements characteristic of situations that actually involved control or skill. These elements that may induce an illusion of control are, according to this author: the possibility of choice; familiarity of stimulus and response; competition; and active or passive competition. These hypotheses have subsequently been tested in diverse studies which, in general, have corroborated the original results. For a review of the topic, the reader should consult the article by Presson and Benassi (1996), who carried out a meta-analysis of 53 experiments on illusion of control.
http://www.psychologyinspain.com/conten ... 2000/3.htm
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Doug
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Superstitious Gamblers

Post by Doug »

DOUG
Some techniques gamblers use to get luck.

These eyes wide shut have seen the superstitious gambler sprinkling salt on machines and trying to make them pay off by using salt's association with money. That comes from ancient times when workers were paid with salt, called "salarium." We know that word today as salary. Another example was once observing a man heat up his coins with a hair dryer in the men's bathroom. In questioning his gaming prowess, he replied with unwavering conviction that inserting hot coins produced more winners because the coins coming out of his favorite machine were hot. My explanation that coins' falling out hot is due to the close proximity of lights and other electrical components to the hopper was ignored.

My personal favorite was when a lady playing on my blackjack game pulled out a Ken doll dressed in black and whites that even had a bow tie duplicating the one I was wearing. After every hand I (the house) won, she inserted straight pins into my likeness and started a voodoo conversation with the doll. Was this certifiable proof that evolution CAN devolve? Who knows, but she won big. An everyday event anyone can witness is the loud cry for "Same Dice!" on a crap game if the dice fly off the table. If a pit boss decides not to put the same bones back on the game, a chorus of gamblers will howl, "Take down my bet" or "No action on my numbers." Their haunted belief is based on the couplet: "Dice on the floor, seven at the door."

And Sandy, who doesn't have an array of lucky sweaters, hats, shirts, shoes and jewelry that they think will bring them luck. The worst are those gamesters who believe luck is enhanced by wearing dirty clothing while gambling. It might not work but at least they will not have others playing close to them on neighboring slot machines.

But there is another gaming populace that can be far more superstitious than grass root gamblers. How's this for a group with those same paranoiac beliefs in the paranormal: Casino owners, managers, and employees!

From my own inventory of peculiar accounts I have witnessed is the salt shaker hidden away in the pit. (If one of the tables is losing bad, a little salt on the floor cannot hurt.) Also tossing a penny under the crap game, that is if it lands head up. Tails and the game will blow up right in your face. You'll have to go fetch that penny.

I once had a shift supervisor tell me that to become a successful pit boss in this business you have to identify lucky from unlucky dealers. Another manager would not let me eat peanuts behind the counter when I worked in a sports book.

Or how about pit bosses changing the cards or dice when they are running in the player's favor. Sure, we think we're inspecting them for imperfections and cheats, but many times it's not the charlatans were after, just a change in luck.
DOUG
Read the rest here:
http://www.markpilarski.com/column74-2.html
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Post by Dardedar »

Doug wrote:And what was the rate of hits and misses?
DAR
There are a bunch of little quirks we are probably not noticing here too. Such as the fact that the pool of songs decreases each time, that is, it is not a pool of the entire 10-12 songs each time. The pool decreases each time by one because these "random" players select the songs randomly (perhaps) until all of the songs have been played. Otherwise there would be a lot of repetition including playing the same song two or three times in a row on occasion.

Two quick personal coincidences that I can think of off hand:

1) There is a very unique and rare model of Wurlitzer piano (a console, about waist high) where they experimented with a very strange action (a piano "action" is the mechanism that causes a hammer to hit a string when you press a key). I have only seen perhaps four of them EVER. It didn't catch on. I have tuned about 7,000 in total pianos so you can see how rare this model of Wurlitzer piano really is. About three months ago I tuned one in these in the morning, no big deal. Here is the fluke, my very next client in a different town had the exact same extremely rare model of piano. Two in a row.
So, out of 7,000 pianos, four random sections, what are the odds of two of the selections landing right next to each other. Weird for sure, extremely unlikely if you isolate the instance, but not a big deal (emotionally) to anyone because it's not a very personal experience that affects anyone's life. Notice it is only after the fact that this unique event stands out and is noticed. That's important.

2) I cover a population area of about 250,000 people. All of NWA, a little into Missouri, Eureaka Springs and Berryville once in a while. And Talequah OK a couple times per year. One day I had a two separate customers book piano tunings side by side. The weird part? They were next door neighbors. I didn't notice this until I went to the first tuning. Actually this happens quite often, neighbors talk to each other and sometimes do this on purpose. But not in this instance because I checked. They hadn't talked or planned this (as I remember, they didn't even know each other). Now consider all of the addresses of all of the piano owners in NWA area. Many thousands of addresses. And two that live right next door to each other book a tuning with me on the very same day.

If you have enough "events" to examine and look for patterns you are going to find some very impressive coincidences pop up in the noise.

Regarding these dreams and gambling, there are several factors going on. It's a bit of a magic trick like cold reading. It seems so persuasive until you consider all of these factors. It's almost a shame to take the fun out of it by showing what is very likely going on here. A past issue of Skeptic had a nice list of the different factors that often come together to make this apparent magical fluke appear so persuasive. I'll see if I can find that artice. Might be a good idea to do a presentation at a meeting on this.

D.
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An example of coincidence: “In Psalm 46 of the King James Bible, published in the year that Shakespeare turned 46, the 46th word is "shake" and the 46th word from the end is "spear."
--"The Power of Coincidence" by David G. Myers, Skeptic Magazine, vol. 9, #2, 2002
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Post by Savonarola »

Darrel wrote:It may be that CD players don't use a truly random algorithm but instead grab from a handful of preset scattered patterns. Just a thought.
Doug wrote:Perhaps Darrel has the answer. It is very difficult to have a truly random number generated electronically, especially in hardware as opposed to software. At least, as I recall, it was a chronic problem in the early days of computing.

It is possible that you have subconsciously figured out within a certain degree of probability what the algorithm is for calling up the next songs.
I wondered how long it would take for you guys to bring this up. :-P

While I can confidently say that the math doesn't explain the ratio, I am not at all confident that there are no patterns. There's only so much one person can keep track of, and since I'm always driving and can't write at the same time, written records simply aren't going to happen.

Another thing that I've thought about is the possibility of subconsciously recognizing either very subtle sounds from ripping/burning errors or maybe extended (more than average) periods of silence before a song starts. I seriously suspect the latter in one case, as I seem to "predict" that song most often. However, I haven't done the test. (I also know that at least one song has a recognizable blip before the music, but I never count a "prediction" of that song. Perhaps there are others that I haven't consciously recognized.)

The way I figure it, by the time I investigate these possibilities, the wonder will indeed be gone, as Doug has suggested. I don't actually think I'm psychic in any sense of the word, but I was hoping to elicit a response from you psychic-busters to see (1) how easily you could bust it, and (2) to see if you guys had any ideas I hadn't thought about.
I must say, though, even though it's pseudopsychic, my "predicting" correctly sure can be enjoyable. I wonder if/how that enjoyment plays into alleged psychics' self-analyses.
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Post by Dardedar »

Savonarola wrote: ...even though it's pseudopsychic, my "predicting" correctly sure can be enjoyable. I wonder if/how that enjoyment plays into alleged psychics' self-analyses.
DAR
Absolutely. And I think this may be partly why the word "skeptic" is confused with or associated with "cynic" sometimes. I remember when I first discovered the fun of debunking my own (and abundant) new age foo foo beliefs, my now ex-wife was not so much into this change of course at the time. Being a singer she was always learning new songs and I remember her drawing my attention to the song "Let the Mystery Be." There is fun in the life view that there is magic going on all around us (incidentally, reality as we know it so far via QM etc, is quite magical enough for me).

It really is like a magic trick. Even a very simple little trick can give people goose bumps, amaze, astonish and excite your sense of the mysterious. I remember when I first started doing magic tricks I thought I would be a heretical magician and tell people how I did it. DUMB idea. When you tell the secret the magic disappears and becomes just a cheap, ugly, trick. In fact I struggle with this when I buy new tricks. I bought a really neat trick in Las Vegas. The store owner performed it and AMAZED me! I must have it! Incredible! Can't wait to buy it and perform it! Amazing! Then I buy it, read the instructions and see how it was done (so the magic for me is gone) and ho hum, just a simple cheap trick. The magic is gone. If have to force myself to learn it and perform it and forget that while it is just a cheap trick for me, it will be AMAZING, incredible and awesome for other people to observe.

Why? Because they don't know how it is happening. And when you see something that is outside of the norm. Something that shouldn't even be possible, I think it tickles a little funny spot in our heads. That's magic (it might be religion too btw). Once you know what is going on. No more magic. No more tickle. That is unless you are watching another magician work and don't know how she is doing it. (I wonder if this works for one priest watching another priest or minister perform?)

This is why one should almost ask permission (or it would be polite to ask) before you debunk some of the more personal "magical" beliefs of others. Especially if it involves the death of loved ones etc. Now there are certain things that we know with great certainty, the age of the earth, the non-flatness of the earth, the contradictory nature of the Bible God, Biblical errancy etc, that I have NO compunction about roasting with no mercy. But there are some sacred areas, and some occasions, where I think it's better to walk a little lighter. Quite a subjective line. Depends on the mood....

D.
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Even if the open windows of science at first make us shiver with cold after the cosy indoor warmth of traditional humanizing myths, in the end the fresh air brings vigour, and the great spaces have a splendour of their own.
--Bertrand Russell, "What I Believe," in Why I Am Not a Christian and Other Essays on Religion and Related Subjects
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