A Case for Optimism

[Dardedar]

A column, based upon a presentation given at our January Freethinker meeting, was published in the NWA Times.

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A Case for Optimism

by Darrel Henschell

In 1844, the US had an event known as "The Great Disappointment." Based upon some novel interpretations of the book of Daniel, thousands of people gave away their possessions in anticipation of Christ's return that year. Later, groups such as the Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesess found their own interpretations to arrive at end-time dates decades later. I grew up in a household (as did my mother, grandmother, and great-grandmother) where Armageddon was always "just around the corner." Not believing this was considered a lack of faith, and even having long term plans (such as going to college to prepare for a career) was strongly discouraged.

These Bible prophecy beliefs are still common, whether based upon creative counting in Daniel or vague references in the New Testament predicting increases in crime, disease, war, and famine. Hal Lindsey had a bestselling book about prophecy in 1970 with "The Late Great Planet Earth" and more recently believers were titillated with the "Left Behind" series which sold 65 million copies. Our 24/7 news cycle feeds this notion that things are constantly getting worse. However, let's take a moment to consider how badly this fails to look at the big picture.

Consider famine. Our present situation, where 99% of humankind does not starve and 75% are not malnourished, is not perfect but we should remember that it is unique in human history. Poverty used to be so pervasive that famine was considered part of the natural order. Estimates vary widely, but as many as 45 million may have died of famine in China in the 19th century alone. To put that in perspective, if you were to lay that many people end to end, they would stretch around the earth, twice. While China had a terrible famine in 1958, they haven't had anything comparable since.

What about disease? In 1952, the US had 58,000 new cases of polio, and by 1977 we had a quarter of a million paralyzed. To better grasp the suffering involved by that number, try putting the word "polio" into Google and choose "images." Note the pictures of paralyzed children trapped in "iron lung" machines. We've cured that disease, completely.

Smallpox killed more than 300 million people worldwide during the 20th century. The world has been free of smallpox since 1979.

Malaria has killed perhaps half of all the people who have ever lived. We still have many outbreaks, but fatality rates have been cut by 1/3 in the hardest hit African region.

AIDS has caused about 30 million deaths, but Magic Johnson, now HIV positive for 23 years, proves it's no longer a death sentence.

We used to endure almost 200,000 cases of diphtheria in the US per year (15% died). Number of cases in the entire 21st century? Two.

Are we more violent? In prehistoric times as many as 25% of the male population would die in wars. In his new book, "Why Violence Has Declined," Dr. Steven Pinker documents a dramatic reduction in war deaths, family violence, and murder. He notes, "The decline of violence may be the most significant and least appreciated development in the history of our species." How many people know this? Battles used to kill more than 500 out of every 100,000 people; in the 20th century, that number dropped to 60. Currently, battlefield deaths are down to three-tenths of a person per 100,000. Also, Dr. Pinker says the rate of genocide deaths per capita was 1,400 times higher in 1942 than in 2008.
Life expectancy? In just the 20th century, it has increased by 29.5 years. This has never happened before. Since 1840, the gain for women is almost three months each year. Imagine getting a three month life extension for every year you live.

What about the babies? In 1900, every nation had an infant death rate of over 50 per 1,000 live births (most were over 100). In 50 countries today it's less than 10 deaths per 1000.

Matt Ridley notes: “This generation has experienced more peace, freedom, leisure time, education, medicine, and travel than any in history. Yet it laps up gloom at every opportunity.”

Fortunately, the carefully selected stream of bad news attempting to prop up end-time prophecy, and the media's focus on disaster and woe is not an accurate picture. Somehow, we consistently fail to appreciate the profoundly unique time we live in and the incredible advances that have been made. We should stop doing that.

[Art Hobson]

Darrel - I was out of town when your column appeared in last Sunday's newspaper. It's terrific: filled with facts, well written, with interesting ideas. You are quite right about things getting better in so many basic ways, especially in places like China (which I regard as a modern miracle of development). I'm afraid I sometimes contribute to that atmosphere of gloom you're talking about, because I focus on problems like nuclear weapons and overpopulation in hopes that I'll be able to suggest something to help solve them. Since reading you article, I plan to try to keep your optimistic attitude more in mind. I hope you'll try your hand at more columns. I'll bet the Times editor would be open to another, if you ask him. - Art