Alternative Energy Sources - Myths and Realities

[Dardedar]

DAR
I thought this was a good overview of the future energy situation and a sober consideration of the limits of our alternatives to oil. Bottomline: we, (but especially our children) are in for a reality check.

***
Electronic Green Journal

December 1998

Special Issue 9

Oil fuels the modern world. It brought great changes to economies and lifestyles in less than 200 years. Nothing else to date can equal the enormous impact which the use of oil has had on so many people, so rapidly, and in so many ways around the world. But oil is a finite resource. The common question "How long will oil be produced?" is the wrong question. The critical question is "When is the date of the maximum daily amount of world oil production--the peak?" After that oil will be an irreversibly declining resource facing an increasing demand which cannot be met. The world passed its peak of rate of oil discoveries in the 1960s, but there is a lag time from discovery to full production. Although estimates differ slightly, it seems clear that the peak of world oil production will be reached at least by 2020, and possibly within the next decade (Campbell 1997; Campbell & Laherrere 1998; Ivanhoe 1995).

One statistic points up the need to think about alternative energy sources; the world now uses about 26 billion barrels of oil a year, and in new field discoveries we are finding less than 5.5 billion barrels annually. The world is going out of the oil business. With the many good things which oil now does for us, what will happen when we no longer have it? What are the possible alternatives to oil? Can any one of them or all combined really fill the gap left by the depletion of oil?

Alternative energy sources can be divided into nonrenewable and renewable.

Alternative Energy Sources

Nonrenewable:

Oil sands, heavy oil
Coal
Shale oil
Gas hydrates
Nuclear fission
Geothermal

Renewable:

Wood/other biomass
Hydropower
Solar energy
Wind energy
Wave energy
Tidal power
Fusion
Ocean thermal energy conversion

Need For Careful Analysis

There is much casual popular thought that energy sources are easily interchangeable, with little examination of the facts. For example, who mentions energy density? Solar energy is a very low-density energy, whereas gasoline is a high-density energy form. There is also the need to determine how available these alternative energy sources are under varying conditions. Wind and solar energies are intermittent and undependable.

We here briefly examine these alternative energy sources as to their advantages and limitations, and their potential to individually or collectively replace oil. We consider those alternatives closest to conventional oil (from wells), and then expand our alternative energy horizons.

Read the article here

D.
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[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

Youngquist is worse than a defeatist. While he is correct on each individual source he brought up, he totally discounts anything that makes electricity and can't be used in an internal combustion engine and he equally discounts combinations. And of course, we've made much-o progress since the article was written in 1998).

According to some sources (Rocky Mountain Institute people), peak has already happened (not just discoveries, but actual production when not manipulated), so going, "Waa" and saying nothing can replace petroleum is not helpful. Tar sands and coal liquification are both expensive and environmentally harmful - but they became economically feasible when oil hit $35/barrel. Ethanol from corn is ridiculous - it's only viable with highly subsidized corn - because it takes 1.5 gallons of equivalent energy to make 1 gallon of fuel - but ethanol from switchgrass, among other plants and crop residues, are much more efficient - using .5 gallons equivalent energy for 1 gallon of fuel. He skips out on biodiesel (which can be made from pure or used fats either animal or vegetable) and pure vegetable oils altogether.

By dismissing anything (i.e., ocean gradient - which being "deep ocean" does NOT suffer from storms the way coastal and tidal systems do) that creates electricity and discounting the ability of the grid to palliate the spikes of intermittent production systems such as wind and solar, he has totally removed the replacement of petroleum-fired power plants from his calculations, as well as the use of electricity in transportation - be they indivudal vehicles (EVs, hybrids, etc) or mass transit (els & subways). But the biggest problem with this guy really is his apparent refusal to combine - it's going to be the combination of factors (wind, solar, biomass, better battery design, more efficient appliances, reinstituting electric train where viable, etc) that will keep us from falling back into the Dark Ages (and I do mean dark - the difference between candles and oil lamps and the new (extremely low wattage) LEDs is next best thing to an order of magnitude).

[Hogeye]

Ethanol from corn is ridiculous - it's only viable with highly subsidized corn - because it takes 1.5 gallons of equivalent energy to make 1 gallon of fuel - but ethanol from switchgrass, among other plants and crop residues, are much more efficient - using .5 gallons equivalent energy for 1 gallon of fuel.

Right. More likely, ethanol would be made from byproducts - the corn stalks, not the corn. Or hemp waste, after the seeds are taken for food, the fibers for cloth, the bud/roots for medicine, etc.

Frankly, I find claims about the cost of producing ethanol rather dubious. No one knows what the cost will be in a free market, without subsidies for ethanol and without subsidies (and wars) for oil.

Personally, I'm not worried about energy. As oil gets more expensive, the market will find a solution. Just like it did when whale-oil got expensive. So long as prices are allowed to float, mankind will find a solution. The main danger is that governments will (continue to) foul up the market ecosystem with price-fixing, regulations, taxation, etc. (Anyone who uses the term "gouging" seriously needs to take Econ 101 and get a clue.)

[Dardedar]

BARB
going, "Waa" and saying nothing can replace petroleum is not helpful.

DAR
But it's true. I think it is useful to point out and have people realize the profound energy density we have enjoyed in the cheap and plentiful oil we have squandered over the decades. That's going to change and it is going to be a biggie. Why? Because there is not substitute that comes close in energy density. I think that was his main point.
People have no concept of how much energy they use and waste and this has been made possible by cheap and abundant oil. It is very unlikely these other methods are going to allow this sort of nonsense.

D.

[ChristianLoeschel]

[quote="Darrel]
DAR
there is not substitute that comes close in energy density.
[/quote]

Wrong. Uranium 235/238. And theyre perfectly viable for engines. What have all the submarines in the last 50 years been running off of?

[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

CL - have you seen the size of both the reactor/generators or the batteries used in submarines? This is not viable for aviation or terrestrial transportation.

Darrel - changes will have to be made, but most of them will have to be made at the production end, and the only individual action will be to purchase with efficiency in mind (and that can be more expensive at the movment than average folks can deal with). Unless I go to the store everyday and purchase just what I am going to eat within the next few hours (6-7 times the gasoline I currently use), I must have refrigeration. I bought an energy star model, because that's what I could afford - the most efficient is a Sun Frost - made to order (you can get it through Real Goods) and over a grand - but not something I can deal with. I have energy star EVERYTHING, but still use 900KW electricity during Aug-Sept. I would be buying "green" power if it was offered. My choices for efficiency as a consumer are extremely limited by either availability or cost.

Hogeye's pie in the sky notwithstanding, the way things are, gov't needs to make changes - removing subsidies in some areas and instituting them in others (though I'd like a "sunset" on all of them, and replace them with limited-time "venture capital startup funds"), to create the market forces that will deal with the problem from the production end. Once the changes in fuel sources are made, and truly efficient, affordable products become available - Well, people like W will have to think up a different reason for going to war in the Middle East (or South America).

[Dardedar]

Wrong. Uranium 235/238.

DAR
Excellent point.

But you are not suggesting nuclear for cars (except via produced electricity and portable batteries) are you?

D.